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NIAS Europe Daily Brief #22, 27 October 2021, Wednesday
IN FOCUS
By Padmashree Anandan
Turkey: President Erdogan's Osman Kavala drama
What happened?
On 24 October, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan directed the foreign ministry to announce the 10 ambassadors from the US, Germany, France, and other NATO allies as "persona non grata." This means removal of diplomatic status which leads to expulsion.
Erdogan said that "the embassies had taken a step back from this slander against our country and our nation. I believe these ambassadors will be more careful in their statements regarding Turkey's sovereign rights" in the future." The statement was declared by the envoys, for the release of activist Osman Kavala but upon the warning of the diplomats and analysts, President Erdogan reversed his decision. he was warned that the decision to evict the ambassadors would result in "economic disaster and rupture in NATO alliance."
Ambassadors of the US, Canada, France, Finland, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, and Sweden issued a joint statement on the fourth anniversary of Kavala's imprisonment. Osman Kavala is a businessman and a philanthropist who was charged by the government for supporting the protests in 2013 known as Gezi Park Protests. Even though not convicted continues to be in prison since 2017. The questions that need to be answered are why is President Erdogan making a statement now? What were the reasons behind the sudden recall of the decision? What makes Kavala important for the leader and government?
Behind the Turkish President's game
First, the support to the ruling party Justice and Development Party (AKP) has now fallen to 30 per cent. The percentage held by opposition marks to 40 per cent now. With the growing number of anti-Erdogan parties, it is a great concern for president Erdogan to be in power. Hence keeping the external parties deviated from the internal affairs of Turkey with the issue of Kavala was a better option.
Second, the international task force against money laundering (FATF) recently placed Turkey on its grey list due to its failure to fight money laundering and financing to terrorism. This resulted in the collapse of foreign exchange rates and the value of the Turkish Lira has descended lower than ever. Adding to the existing inflation, imports have become expensive leading to an economic crisis. This situation until lessened will be pressure and challenge to Erdogan's administration.
Third, the release of Kavala continues to be an issue between the EU and Turkey. The existing administration sees the activist as a potential to carry out a coup attempt and invoke protests in the region. This will be the last thing the party wants to deal with an economic crisis, a deteriorating image of the leader within the country, and narrowed relations with the west.
References
"Turkey moves to throw out US envoy and nine others," BBC, 24 October 2021
Carlotta Gall, "Turkish President Steps Back From Expulsions of 10 Western Diplomats," The New York Times, 25 October 2021
Selcan Hacaoglu, "Turkish Officials Seek to Avoid Expulsion of Western Envoys," Bloomberg, 25 October 2021
IN BRIEF
By Joeana Cera Matthews and Vaishnavi Iyer
ITALY
Climate: Catania experiences a rare Medicane
Marking the third day in a row, flooding triggered by a storm in Sicily has taken over the city of Catania. Experts believe Eastern Sicily has been hit by a unique Mediterranean hurricane called a 'Medicane'. Anthropogenic activities have caused extreme weather events this year, with forecasters issuing severe weather warnings for parts of Sicily and Calabria. The mayor allowed for essential shops to function while other businesses remained shut. The rare Medicane has claimed two lives and has led to a blackout in the city. Italy's Department for Civil Protection has warned of risk to life and property from the consequential heavy rain, thunderstorms and gale force winds. ("Catania: Two dead as rare storm floods streets of Sicilian city," BBC, 27 October 2021)
MOLDOVA
Moldova remains positive amid gas crisis
On 25 October, Moldovan foreign minister Nicu Popescu created "history" by importing gas from Poland over Russia. The gas shipment from PGNiG was one million cubic meters. Until recently, Moldova imported 100 per cent of its gas from Russia. However, this contract expired at the end of September. Moldova has been unwilling to pay for the hiked gas prices by Gazprom. Consequently, Russia reduced gas supplies and accused Moldova of "provoking a crisis" and demanded payment of GBP 514 million of debt. Reduced supplies triggered a 30-day state emergency in Moldova. Popescu admitted to the global energy crunch affecting Moldova. He stated that the Romanian gas pipeline would serve as a "safety valve" while the country looks for other energy alternatives. Experts suspect Russia is limiting its gas supplies as a sign of its disapproval of Moldova's pro-European Union stance. (Steve Rosenberg, "Moldova: Russia threatens gas supply in Europe's poorest state," BBC, 27 October 2021)
POLAND
ECJ imposes a daily penalty of EUR one million
On 27 October, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) instructed Poland to pay a daily fine of EUR one million to the European Commission after it ignored a previous ruling on Poland's judicial reforms. The ruling, announced in July, had called on Poland to suspend the Supreme Court's disciplinary chamber on its failure to ensure impartiality. Commenting on the fine, the ECJ said: "(the fine is) necessary in order to avoid serious and irreparable harm to the legal order of the European Union and to the values on which that Union is founded, in particular that of the rule of law." In response, the Polish government spokesperson Piotr Muller said: "The road of penalties and blackmail against our country is not the right one." ("EU fines Poland €1 million per day over judicial reforms," Deutsche Welle, 27 October 2021; Daniel Boffey, "Poland fined €1m a day over controversial judicial system changes," The Guardian, 27 October 2021)
PORTUGAL
Parliament fails to pass 2022 state budget, triggering potential snap elections
On 27 October, the Portuguese parliament's 2022 state budget proposal got rejected with a margin of 117 votes to 108, with five abstentions. Responding to the event, Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa said: "My conscience is clear… I did all I could to make this budget work without adding anything to it that would be to the country's detriment." The rejected proposal, which underwent serious negotiations, is expected to lead to a snap election. Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa had issued a warning which would call for an early election if the parliament failed to pass the budget. ("Portugal faces snap election as parliament rejects draft budget," The Guardian, 27 October 2021)
REGIONAL
Hungary: French leader Le Pen visits Orban
On a visit to Budapest, far-right leader Marine Le Pen expressed support for Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban. She accused the European Union of "ideological brutality". Appreciating Orban's "courage" and "determination" she vowed stronger bilateral relations between Hungary and France if elected president the next year. She fondly remembered Hungarian "heroes" of the 1956 revolt against the Soviet Union. She refused to comment on the anti-LGBTQ law, but accused the EU of endangering countries' sovereignty with its ideology. She also opposed the idea that EU legislation should take precedence over national laws. She criticized the "unusually violent" threats of the EU issuing sanctions over Poland and Hungary. Previously, Hungary supported the Polish reforms of Polish national laws gaining primacy over EU laws, a move largely criticized by France. ("France's far-right leader Le Pen backs Hungary's Orban, lambasts EU," France 24, 26 October 2021)
GENDER
Italy: Anti-homophobic bill repealed by Senate
On 27 October, the Italian senate cancelled a bill that safeguarded the rights of the LGBTQIA+ community. The anti-homophobic bill aimed to classify violence against those from the LGBTQIA+ community, along with disabled people, as a hate crime. The debate on the bill was blocked after a showdown of 154 to 131 votes. A member of the Democratic Party (PD) of the European Parliament Pina Picierno stated: "one of the worst pages in the history of the Italian republic." Those of the far-right, who refused to accept the bill, claimed that the law would infringe upon one's right to freedom of expression while propagating "homosexual propaganda". (Lorenzo Tondo, "'Disgraceful': Italy's senate votes down anti-homophobic violence bill," The Guardian, 27 October 2021)
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
EU demands stronger regulations against Facebook
Margrethe Vestager, European Competition Commissioner demanded stringent actions against Facebook. The anti-trust official urged democracies to "stand together" against the tech giant. She admitted legal action could take time but requested urgent measures to curb any future damage. She insisted on stronger regulations over how Facebook runs its platforms, which not only has immense influence on the mental health of the users but also on the development of democracies. She referred to the EU legislation of balancing freedom of speech and posts online that incite violence. Acknowledging Facebook's security concerns, she hoped the new regulations allow for smaller businesses to avail markets and for Facebook to take responsibility for the harm caused. (Elizabeth Schumacher, "EU antitrust official Vestager: We must act now against Facebook," Deutsche Welle, 26 October 2021)